Kelive

Sign In

		Thailand \| Singapore \| Malaysia

Market Insight

Economics

Please click here, for articles posted before 21 Mar'03

Page 1 2 3

02 Sep 10 1:50PM Inflation : Bank of Thailand expected to increase policy rate by 25bps at next meeting to normalise real interest

Headline and core inflation falls to 3.30% and 1.15% in AugustThe Ministry of Commerce announced Wednesday morning headline and core inflation had slowed to 3.30% and 1.15%, respectively, in August. This was in line with our estimates of 3.11% and 1.3%, respectively. Actually the August headline inflation was up 0.23% from the previous month (mom) largely on a 0.23% mom jump in food prices (33%....

02 Sep 10 8:59AM Econ : July economic numbers remain strong

The 2H10 GDP growth rate should slow from 1H10 on external factorsMost of the July economic indicators released by the Bank of Thailand last Tuesday remained resilient. Private investment made a strong recovery of 22.1% yoy indicating investors now have more confidence in both the global economic recovery and Thai domestic fundamentals supported by greater political stability, higher private....

24 Aug 10 2:31PM Econ : Revised 2010 GDP growth higher to 7.3% yoy from the strong 1H10 GDP growth of 10.6% yoy

The 2H10 GDP growth rate should slow from 1H10We have no doubt about a 21.82% Ytd (year to date) increase in the SET Index, which is the second best performer in the region as the 1Q10 and 2Q10 GDP growth rates of 12% yoy and 9.10% yoy, respectively, (bringing the 1H 10 growth rate to 10.6% yoy) are quite strong. Although we have a positive outlook on the Thai economy for the second half (4.33%)....

20 Aug 10 3:03PM Econ : Thai export growth slowed to 20.6% yoy in July, less than consensus of 37.1% yoy

Thai export growth slowed in July to upward 20.6% yoyThe July exports were up 20.6% yoy to $15.6bn (less than consensus of +37.1% yoy and slower than the historic high of $18bn, up 46.3% yoy, last month), while the year to date exports (7 months) were up 34.1% yoy to $109bn and 57.6% of the full year 2010 export estimate by the Ministry of Commerce of $189bn, up 20% yoy. As a result, KIM ENG....

03 Aug 10 3:17PM Inflation : Although the inflation has remained within the BoT range, the Bank of Thailand is widely expected to increase the policy rate by 50bps by the end of this year to normalise real interest ra

Headline and core inflation increased to 3.46% and 1.14% in JulyThe Ministry of Commerce announced Monday afternoon headline and core inflation had increased to 3.46% and 1.14%, respectively, in July. This was higher than our previous estimate of 3.03% yoy and 1.13% yoy, respectively. Actually the July headline inflation was up 0.16% from the previous month (mom) largely on a 0.4% mom jump in....

02 Aug 10 11:31AM Econ : June economic conditions show resumed growth reflecting better confidence on less political tension

More positive outlook for the 2H10 domestic economy with remaining caution on the global economyMost of the June economic indicators, released by the Bank of Thailand last Friday have remained resilient as the market had expectation and better than our previous forecast. As a result, the 2Q10 GDP should beat our previous forecast of 6.4-6.8% yoy and may reach the Fiscal policy office estimate of....

23 Jul 10 1:31PM Econ : Thai exports at record high for June 2010 and 2010 GDP growth should be higher than 6% yoy

Thai exports hit record in June, up 46.3% yoyThe June exports hit an historic high of $18bn, up 46.3% yoy and beat market estimates of 34.5% yoy as a result of exports of high-technology, agricultural and automotive products. If excluding gold exports, the June export total would have increased 40.5% yoy to $17.1bn. For the 1H10, Thai exports are up 20.92% yoy.....

15 Jul 10 2:13PM Econ : Interest rate rises 25bps, as expected

The MPC has raised the RP1 rate by 25bps on a better domestic outlookThe Thai stock market was expecting the Thai central bank to raise interest rates by 25bps and this was confirmed yesterday. The Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced yesterday afternoon that rates will increase from the current 1.25% to 1.50% and the reason was the economic recovery has become more evident....

02 Jul 10 2:36PM Inflation : Inflation remains within BoT range, but is expected to increase the policy rate by 25 bps

Headline and core inflation slow to 3.30% and 1.10% in JuneThe Ministry of Commerce announced Thursday afternoon headline and core inflation had slowed to 3.30% and 1.10%, respectively, in June. This was in line with the market consensus, but higher than our previous estimate of 2.85%yoy and 1.13%yoy, respectively. Actually the June head-line inflation was up 0.26% from the previous month (mom)....

02 Jul 10 1:56PM Econ : A more positive outlook for the Thai economy in 2Q-3Q10 with advised investor caution on risk of global economic slowdown

More positive outlook for domestic economy in 2Q-3Q, but remain cautious on global economy in 2H10Most of the May economic indicators, except for tourism, released by the Bank of Thailand last Wednesday have remained resilient, despite the political unrest that month. As a result, we have revised our 2010 GDP growth rate forecast up from 4.50% to 5.30% due to a more positive outlook for the....

02 Jun 10 2:06PM Inflation : BoT will maintain the current low policy interest rate for some time, while supporting steady growth as May inflation remains within the BoT range

Headline and core inflation increases to 3.42% and 1.18% in MayThe Ministry of Commerce announced Tuesday morning headline and core inflation had increased to 3.42% and 1.18%, respectively, in May. This was in line with the market consensus, but higher than our previous estimate of 2.80% yoy and 1.11% yoy, respectively. The increase in inflation from a 2.93% yoy in April or a 0.20% mom increase....

02 Jun 10 11:19AM Econ : Thai market investors are evaluating the political impact on the Thai economy

Investors should be cautious on future negative factors that may dampen the Thai economyMost of the April economic indicators released by the Bank of Thailand last Monday remain resilient with industrial production, export values, private consumption and investment seeing a strong recovery on a year on year basis. Nevertheless, the current business sentiment index was lower on concerns over....

25 May 10 3:38PM Econ : Investors should remain cautious on future negative factors that may dampen the Thai economy, despite the very strong 1Q10 GDP growth rate

Investors should be cautious on future negative factors that may dampen the Thai economy Although the NESDB declared very strong GDP growth of 12% yoy in 1Q10, which is higher than the market consensus of 9% yoy, the Thai stock market closed down 2.77% to 744.31 pressured by foreign net-selling of Bt7,752mn. This is due to 1) the GDP growth rates over the next 3 quarters are expected to slow....

06 May 10 10:15AM Inflation : The Bank of Thailand will maintain the current low policy interest rate for some time to come to support steady growth

Headline and core inflation decline to 2.93% and 0.53% in AprilThe Ministry of Commerce announced Tuesday morning headline and core inflation had declined to 2.93% and 0.53%, respectively, in April. This was in line with the KELIVE consensus of 2.9% and 0.39%. The fall in inflation from a 3.41% in March was largely due to a higher CPI base in April 2009. Actually, inflation was up 0.49% mom in....

04 May 10 4:47PM Econ : Thai market investors are evaluating the political impact on the Thai economy

Investors are waiting to see a clearer picture of a political resolution We are generally encouraged by the March economic indicators released by the Bank of Thailand last Friday. These numbers show a steady and strong recovery in all segments reflecting higher corporate and household confidence. With a higher than expected export growth of 32% yoy in 1Q10, the 1Q10 GDP growth may beat our....

22 Apr 10 12:16PM Econ : Interest rates remain unchanged, as expected and a rate hike may be delayed to the third quarter of this year

Rates unchanged due to political problemsThe Thai stock market was not expecting the Thai central bank to change interest rates anytime soon and this was confirmed yesterday. The Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced yesterday afternoon that rates would remain unchanged from the current 1.25% and the reason was that the heightened political risks is the key factor affecting....

02 Apr 10 11:20AM Inflation : The Bank of Thailand will maintain the current low policy interest rate at the next meeting as inflationary pressures are moderate, while politics and Map Ta Phut problems remain

Headline and core inflation declines to 3.41% and 0.35% in MarchThe Ministry of Commerce announced yesterday afternoon headline and core inflation had declined to 3.41% and 0.35%, respectively, in March. This was in line with the market consensus of 3.6% and 0.35%. The slowdown in inflation from a 3.70% in February was largely due to a higher CPI base in March 2009. Actually, inflation was up....

01 Apr 10 3:28PM Econ : February economic indicators remain sound and will support 1Q10 GDP growth of 7.50% yoy

February economic indicators show signs of a strong recovery in all segmentsWe are generally encouraged by the February economic indicators released by the Bank of Thailand yesterday. These numbers show a steady and strong recovery in all segments reflecting higher corporate and household confidence. Although the economic figures are quite good, Thai investors are taking the news as a ?Sell on....

03 Mar 10 2:38PM Inflation : More likelihood on an interest rate increase in the midyear given a strong and stable recovery of the domestic economy

Headline and core inflation declines to 3.70% and 0.3% in FebruaryThe Ministry of Commerce announced yesterday morning headline and core inflation had declined to 3.70% and 0.3%, respectively, in February. This was slightly higher than the market consensus of 3.40% and 0.40%. A slow down in inflation rate from a 4.10% in January was largely due to a higher CPI base in February 2009. Actually,....

02 Mar 10 8:37AM Econ : January economic numbers should inspire further confidence

Overshadowed by politics but positive economic numbers should not be overlookedAs Thailand was griping itself for the Thaksin Supreme Court case verdict last Friday, the Bank of Thailand released its January economic numbers. The numbers may have been overshadowed by political news, but we are encouraged that the private sector is getting back on its feet and momentum is building in the economy....

23 Feb 10 9:36AM Econ : Thai economy still fragile despite surprisingly strong 4Q09 GDP growth of 5.8% yoy

The Thai economic growth still dependent on exports and tourismThe National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced yesterday morning that Thailand?s economy in 4Q09 expanded by a surprisingly strong 5.82% yoy, or a seasonally adjusted 3.63% qoq. This is well above our previous growth estimates of 3.0% yoy and 1.0% qoq. These economic numbers should help improve sentiment in the....

02 Feb 10 9:46AM Inflation : BoT may hike the policy rate in midyear given a strong and stable recovery of the domestic economy

Headline and core inflation rebounds to 4.10% and 0.60% in JanuaryThe Ministry of Commerce announced yesterday morning headline and core inflation had rebounded to 4.10% and 0.60%, respectively, in January. This was slightly higher than the market consensus of 3.9% and 0.30%. In opposition, we believe inflation will tend to fall in February 2010 due to a higher CPI base in February 2009 and lower....

20 Jan 10 9:42AM Econ : Preliminary December trade data far exceeds expectations

Commerce Ministry announces a 26.1% jump in Dec exportsThe Ministry of Commerce announced yesterday preliminary December exports rose 26.1% yoy. This exceeds expectations and will result in a revision of our 2009 and 2010 estimates. The key point, however, is that imports rose by a remarkable 28.12% yoy. This will help lay to rest some concerns on the strength of the Thai economic recovery, in....

14 Jan 10 9:06AM Econ : Interest rates remain unchanged, as expected

No reason to change interest ratesThe Thai stock market was not expecting the Thai central bank to change the interest rate policy anytime soon and this was confirmed yesterday. The Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced yesterday afternoon that rates would remain unchanged from the current 1.25% and the reason was that risks to the economic recovery remain ahead. This is as....

05 Jan 10 9:38AM Inflation : Positive inflation in 2010 will set the stage for BoT to keep a close watch on the current unnaturally low interest rate

Headline and core inflation rebound to 3.53% and 0.2% in DecemberThe Ministry of Commerce announced that headline and core inflation rebounded to 3.53% and 0.2%, respectively, in December. This was slightly lower than our forecast and supports the fact that prices will begin to substantially rise in the months ahead. A sharp increase in inflation is largely due to a lower CPI base after oil....