| 09 Sep 10 1:42PM
SGP ( Bt15.00 : BUY ) Revised target down to Bt18.50 on COGEL share delay |
| The COGEL share transfer cannot be completed this year, thus, we have revised our 2010 and 2011 earnings downward 9.3% and 5.0% to Bt1,307mn (EPS Bt1.38) and Bt1,758mn (EPS Bt1.85), respectively. With a lower 2011 EPS, we have therefore revised the target price down from Bt19.50 to Bt18.50 based on a 2011 PER of 10x. Overall, we recommend a BUY ON WEAKNESS for SGP as the current share price is.... |
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| 08 Sep 10 8:25AM
TTCL ( Bt8.15 : BUY ) Stronger outlook for 2011 |
| We have a positive view for TTCL, as most Map Ta Phut projects are about to resume operations. A high potential for new proposal bids will boost the 2011 backlog above Bt10bn. We expect revenue and net profit in 2011 to increase 48% yoy and 38% yoy. Moreover, with the strong financial status, we see TTCL expanding investment into other businesses, which will support long-term growth. We recommend.... |
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| 07 Sep 10 9:10AM
Property Fund Watch (07/09/10) |
| Our Recommended Strategy: The Property funds have announced and paid 2Q dividends at high yields above 7% pa. Investors are reminded that this is the primary measure of property fund value. SPF and URBNPF are reducing capital, QHOP reports a delay in guaranteed revenue and URBNPF has cancelled the quarterly dividend. SIRIPF is delisting and dissolving in Sep. Trading volume was high last week with.... |
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| 06 Sep 10 9:50AM
THAI ( Bt39.00 : BUY ) Upgrade to BUY with a fair value of Bt46 |
| The 2Q10 net profit of Bt1.55bn was lower-than-expected due to taxes higher than expected. The booked forex gain of Bt4.4bn and a penalty for an aircraft delivery delay of Bt336mn. When excluding the extra items, THAI had a normalised loss of Bt3.50bn. THAI generated a 1H10 normalised profit of Bt1.59bn and expects the 3Q10 performance to strongly recover to make a profit and with continuing.... |
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| 03 Sep 10 2:58PM
Energy Sector ( POSITIVE ) Go ahead for PTT GSP 6 startup |
| Case dismissal for all stalled Map Tap Phut projects not on the 11 harmful activities list
Yesterday, most of the suspended industrial projects in Map Ta Phut and nearby areas got the green light from the Administrative Court to proceed. However, there are 2 projects - the Ethylene oxide/ Ethylene Glycol (EO/EG) expansionary project of 95,000 tonnes/year by TOC Glycol Co. Ltd, a subsidiary of.... |
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| 03 Sep 10 11:33AM
ILINK ( Bt7.05 : HOLD) Management maintains 2010 sales target |
| Management has maintained the 2010 sales target of Bt1,500mn (+30%) and profit of Bt130mn (+20%). The 2H10 performance will improve, but is likely to miss the management target. ILINK has a backlog of Bt434mn to be mostly realised in the second half of this year. We are maintaining our 2010 forecast of sales to rise 10% to Bt1,275mn and the net profit to reach Bt110mn, down 2%. A low PER and a.... |
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| 02 Sep 10 10:02AM
KSL ( Bt11.70 : SELL ) Maintain SELL with weak 2H earnings |
| KSL is expected to post a 3Q09/10 (May - July 2010) net profit of Bt92mn, down 9% qoq and 42% yoy. The company will record a loss on derivative contracts of -Bt113mn. Earnings are expected to decline due to domestic sugar sales showing a net loss and ethanol margins squeezed from external molasses use. We expect 4Q09/10 performance will be bad, as the power plant will shutdown longer and earlier.... |
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| 01 Sep 10 1:41PM
Energy Sector ( NEGATIVE ) Waiting for Administrative Court ruling tomorrow |
| Cabinet approved list of industrial harmful activitiesYesterday, the Thai cabinet approved a list of 11 industrial activities deemed to be harmful to the environment that were proposed by the National Environment Board (NEB). According to the regulation, all projects with potential environmental and health impact and named on the list must conduct impact assessment studies, public hearings and.... |
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| 01 Sep 10 12:33PM
BANPU ( Bt612.00 : BUY ) Centennial Coal acquisition deal to be finalised |
| In an analyst?s meeting, we learned that management expects the Centennial Coal buy to be concluded soon. Our positive view on the company earnings outlook and our recommended Buy with a target price of Bt740 (excluding Centennial at Bt80) are thus maintained. We believe the recent rebound in coal prices of 2.1% wow to $90.60/tonne, after a 9-week consecutive fall, implies an uptrend signal for.... |
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| 01 Sep 10 10:15AM
CPN ( Bt30.00 : HOLD ) Earnings recovery 2011 after the reopenings |
| We have a positive view on CPN given the promising growth driven by the current properties and new projects including investments in China. Earnings are forecast to recover in 4Q10 with the re-opening of parts of Central World in September. Despite an earnings downgrade, we have raised the DCF target price to Bt30 as CPN will post strong results from 2012 onward after the renovations of Central.... |
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| 31 Aug 10 1:01PM
Property Fund Watch (31/08/10) |
| Our Recommended Strategy: The Property funds have announced 2Q earnings and declared 2Q dividends at high yields above 7.02% pa. Investors are reminded that this is the primary measure of property fund value. SPF and URBNPF are reducing capital, QHOP reports a possible delay in guaranteed revenue and URBNPF has cancelled the quarterly dividends. SIRIPF is delisting and dissolving in Sep. Trading.... |
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| 31 Aug 10 10:44AM
JUTHA ( Bt5.35 : SELL ) 2Q10 earnings recover to Bt5.7mn, still weak |
| JUTHA reported a 2Q10 normalised profit recovery to Bt5.7mn, better than last quarter (norm loss of -Bt4.8mn) and the same period of last year (norm loss -Bt0.2mn). If including a forex loss of -Bt1.5mn, the net profit would be Bt4.1mn, a fall from last quarter with no forex or vessel sale gains. We have since revised down our 2010 normalised profit projection to Bt15mn from Bt30mn and have.... |
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| 31 Aug 10 9:59AM
Banking Sector ( POSITIVE ) Positive outlook in 2H10 |
| We maintain our POSITIVE outlook on the banking sector for 2H10, supported by (1) good loan growth momentum ? corporate loans and SME loans recovering in the normal business cycle and the continued retail loan growth. (2) A rising NIM due to the rising interest rate environment and loan growth along with (3) no additional pressures for extra provisioning as a result of improving asset quality. Our.... |
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| 30 Aug 10 1:48PM
Property Sector ( POSITIVE ) Recovery of Property Sector in 2H/10 |
| Sustainable growth over the next 9 monthsWe estimate the residential property sector to recover significantly in the latter part of the year through 1H10. The July housing demand index hit a 39 month high. We believe that the index is likely to rise further. In a best case, if the index hits 85, that will make a 54 month high. Despite the imapct of the political turmoil on the proeprty sector, new.... |
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| 30 Aug 10 9:34AM
SSI ( Bt2.06 : HOLD ) MOU signed for UK Teeside Cast Products |
| MOU has been signed to buy the mothballed Teeside Cast Products for Bt500mn. The proposed acquisition is part of the SSI strategy of expanding upstream production to support present production. We forecast SSI will increase capital to support this transaction. In addition the loss in TCP will also hurt SSI earnings performance. We have downgraded our recommendation to HOLD with a target price of.... |
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| 26 Aug 10 10:28AM
PTTEP ( Bt143.00 : BUY ) PTTEP confident on Montara problem solution |
| PTTEP management clarified claim information of $784mn (some sources said $2.23bn) yesterday from both direct and indirect impacts of the Montara oil spill and that the company and the Australian government have still not received any official claim from the Indonesian government. PTTEP believes the company has followed all regulations concerning the oil spill and does not believe any further.... |
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| 26 Aug 10 9:29AM
Media & Publishing ( POSITIVE ) Ad industry shows a positive signal |
| The Thai ad industry showed positive momentum in July with 10.8% growth to Bt8, 312mn, thanks to a recovery of consumer confidence and domestic consumption coupled with the World Cup 2010 and ad rate hikes. We see a promising outlook from strong demand for ads and increasing ad rates. Even with the low season in 3Q, the media sector should show healthy ad revenues. Our top picks include, BEC,.... |
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